New Delhi: The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) Q4 of 2017-18 and Provisional estimates (PE) of national income for the financial year 2017-18. Highlights of the same are given below:
Quarterly Estimates (Q4, 2017-18)
- GDP at 2011-12 prices in the fourth quarter (Q4) of financial year 2017-18 registered growth rate of 7.7 per cent as against 5.6 percent , 6.3 percent and 7.0 percent respectively, in the first three quarters, Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2017-18. Rapid growth in agriculture (4.5%), manufacturing (9.1%) and construction sectors (11.5%) contributed to the overall growth.
- At the sectoral level, the growth rate of GVA at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2017-18 for agriculture & allied sectors, industry and services sectors are estimated at 4.5 per cent, 8.8 per cent, and 7.7 per cent respectively.
- The rate of growth of gross fixed capital formation at constant prices increased to 14.4 percent in the fourth quarter on account of 9.0 Percent growth in capital goods in Q4 of 2017-18 as against 0.8 percent, 6.1 percent and 9.1 percent respectively, in the first three quarters, Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2017-18.
Provisional estimates of GDP for 2017-18
- As per the Provisional estimates of national income, the growth rate of GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the financial year 2017-18 is estimated at 6.7 percent. At the sectoral level, the growth rate of GVA at constant (2011-12) prices for agriculture & allied sectors, industry and services sectors for the year 2017-18 are estimated at 3.4 per cent, 5.5 per cent, and 7.9 per cent respectively.
Provisional Estimates of Annual National Income, 2017-18 And
Quarterly Estimates (Q4) of Gross Domestic Product, 2017-18
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the Provisional estimates of national income for the financial year 2017-18, both at constant (2011-12) and current prices. These are presented in Statements 1 to 4.
2. Quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2017-18, both at constant (2011-12) and current prices along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of GDP are also released. The four quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. Estimates including growth rates of Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2017-18 released earlier have been revised in accordance with the revision policy of National Accounts. GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2017-18 is estimated at `34.77 lakh crore, as against `32.27 lakh crore in Q4 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 7.7 percent. Quarterly estimates for the years 2015-16, 2016-17, and 2017-18 are presented in Statements 5 to 8.
3. GDP growth rates for 2017-18 and Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2017-18 at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given below:
| Growth Rates of GDP | ||
| Constant prices (2011-12) | Current prices | |
| Annual 2017 -18 | 6.7 | 10.0 |
| Q1 2017-18 (April-June) | 5.6 | 8.3 |
| Q2 2017-18 (July-Sep) | 6.3 | 9.5 |
| Q3 2017-18 (Oct-Dec) | 7.0 | 11.0 |
| Q4 2017-18 (Jan-Mar) | 7.7 | 10.9 |
I. PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2017-18
4. The Second Advance Estimates of national income for the year 2017-18 were released on 28thFebruary, 2018. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production (IIP) and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking, insurance and Government revenue expenditure. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total tax revenue used for GDP compilation include non-GST revenue and GST revenue. Early results on the performance of corporate sector for April-December 2017 which were used in the advance estimates have been revised on the basis of latest available information.
5. The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:
I. (a) Estimates at constant (2011-12) prices
Gross Domestic Product
6. Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2017-18 is now estimated at `130.11 lakh crore showing a growth rate of 6.7 percent over First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2016-17 of `121.96 lakh crore, released on 31st January, 2018.
Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices
7. Real GVA, i.e, GVA at basic constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2017-18 is now estimated at `119.76 lakh crores showing a growth rate of 6.5 percent over First Revised Estimates of GVA for the year 2016-17 of `112.48 lakh crore, released on 31st January, 2018.
8. The sectors which registered growth rate of over 7.0 percent are ‘public administration, defence and other services’ (10.0 percent), ‘ trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’ (8.0 percent), ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services (7.2 percent)’. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining & quarrying’, ‘manufacturing’,‘construction’, and ‘financial, real estate and professional services’ is estimated to be 3.4 percent, 2.9 percent, 5.7 percent , 5.7 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.
9. Industry analysis
Agriculture
9.1. The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector has shown a growth rate of 3.4 percent as against previous year’s growth rate of 6.3 per cent. The GVA estimates of this sector have been compiled using the Third Advance Estimates of crop production released by Ministry of Agriculture. The third advance estimates of food grain production was 279.51 million tonnes in 2017-18 which is higher than the second advance estimates of food grain production during 2017-18 of 277.49 million tonnes and final estimates of 275.11 million tonnes during the agricultural year 2016-17.
Mining and quarrying
9.2 The ‘mining and quarrying’ sector has shown a growth rate of 2.9 percent as against previous year’s growth rate of 13.0 per cent. The Index of Industrial Production of mining registered growth of 2.3 percent during 2017-18 as compared to 5.3 percent during 2016-17. Production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 2.5 percent and (-)0.9 percent during 2017-18. The private corporate sector growth in the mining sector was estimated using the latest available information on major listed companies for the financial year 2017-18. Further, growth in WPI of mineral oil, coal and crude petroleum and natural gas is estimated at 12.5, 8.9 and (-)0.3 percent respectively during 2017-18 as compared to (-)0.8, 2.3, and (-)4.5 percent respectively during 2016-17.
Manufacturing
9.3 The growth in the ‘manufacturing’ sector is estimated at 5.7 percent as against previous year’s growth rate of 7.9 percent. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of over 70 percent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE was 9.0 percent at current prices during 2017-18. The quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which includes individual proprietorship and partnerships and Khadi & Village Industries having a share of around 21 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. The IIP of manufacturing registered a growth rate of 4.5 percent during 2017-18.
Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services
9.4 GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from ‘Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ sector is estimated at 7.2 percent as against previous year’s growth rate of 9.2 percent. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered a growth rate of 5.4 percent during April-March, 2017-18.
Construction
9.5 GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from ‘Construction’ sector is estimated at 5.7 percent as against previous year’s growth rate of 1.3 percent. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 6.3 per cent and 7.8 percent, respectively, during 2017-18 as compared to (-)1.2 percent and 3.1 percent respectively, during 2016-17.
Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting
9.6. GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from this sector is estimated at 8.0 percent as against previous year’s growth rate of 7.2 percent. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth. With introduction of GST, sales tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on sales tax has been estimated. Methodology of estimation is as explained in the Annex to the press note on estimates of GDP for the second quarter (July-September) of 2017-18 released on 30thNovember, 2017. Indicator used for measuring GVA from hotels and restaurant sector is the private corporate growth in this sector. Among the other services sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major sea ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of 19.9 percent, 4.8 percent, 15.6 percent and 16.5 percent, respectively, during April-March, 2017-18. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers have shown growth of 6.1 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively, during 2017-18.
Financial, real estate and professional services
9.7 The sector ‘financial, real estate and professional services’ has shown a growth rate of 6.6 percent as against previous year’s growth rate of 6.0 percent. Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 72.0 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for Real estate, business services and computer related activities which is estimated from available data from listed companies. The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth of 6.7 percent and 10.3 percent, respectively, as on 31stMarch, 2018.
Public administration, defence and other services
9.8 The sector ‘Public administration, defence and other services’ has shown a growth rate of 10 percent as against previous year’s growth rate of 10.7 per cent. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union government revenue expenditure grew by 14.7 percent during this period.
Gross National Income
10. The Gross National Income (GNI) at 2011-12 prices is now estimated at `128.64 lakh crore during 2017-18, as against the previous year’s estimate of `120.52 lakh crore. In terms of growth rates, the Gross National Income is estimated to have risen by 6.7 percent during 2017-18, in comparison to the growth rate of 7.1 percent in 2016-17.
Per Capita Income
11. The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2017-18 is estimated to have attained a level of ` 86668 as compared to ` 82229 for the year 2016-17. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.4 percent during 2017-18, as against 5.7 percent in the previous year.
Price indices used as deflators
12. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups food articles, minerals, manufactured products and all commodities, has risen by 2.0 percent, 7.0 percent, 2.7 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively during April-March, 2017-18. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 3.6 percent during April- March, 2017-18.
I. (b) Estimates at current prices
Gross Domestic Product
13. GDP at current prices for the year 2017-18 is estimated at `167.73 lakh crore, showing a growth rate of 10.0 percent over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2016-17 of `152.54 lakh crore.
14. The sectors which registered growth rate of over 9.0 percent and above at current prices are mining & quarrying, ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’, ‘financial, real estate & professional services’, and ‘public administration, defence and other services’.
National Income
15. The GNI at current prices is estimated at `165.87 lakh crore during 2017-18, as compared to `150.77 lakh crore during 2016-17, showing a rise of 10 percent.
Per Capita Net National Income
16. The per capita income at current prices during 2017-18 is estimated to have attained a level of ` 112835 as compared to the estimates for the year 2016-17 of ` 103870 showing a rise of 8.6 percent.
II ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP, 2017-18
17. Along with the Provisional Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing the estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2011-12) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GVA estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly expenditure of Central and State Government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
18. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `99.14 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against `90.05 lakh crore in 2016-17. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `72.59 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against `68.12 lakh crore in 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2017-18 are estimated at 59.1 percent and 55.8 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.0 percent and 55.9 percent, respectively in 2016-17.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
19. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `19.08 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against `16.64 lakh crore in 2016-17. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCE is estimated at ` 14.00 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against `12.62 lakh crore in 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2017-18 are estimated at 11.4 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 10.9 percent and 10.3 percent, respectively in 2016-17.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
20. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `47.79 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against `43.52 lakh crore in 2016-17. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at ` 40.88 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against `37.98 lakh crore in 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2017-18 are estimated at 28.5 percent and 31.4 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 28.5 percent and 31.1 percent, respectively, in 2016-17.
21. Estimates of gross/net national income and per capita income, along with GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures of GDP for the years 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18 at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.
III QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q4 (JANUARY-MARCH), 2017-18
III . (a) Estimates at constant (2011-12) prices
22. GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2017-18 is estimated at `34.77 lakh crore, as against `32.27 lakh crore in Q4 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 7.7 percent. GVA at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2017-18 is estimated at `31.01 lakh crore, as against `28.83 lakh crore in Q4 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 7.6 percent.
23. Growth rates in various sectors in Q4 of 2017-18 are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (4.5percent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (2.7 percent), ‘manufacturing’ (9.1 percent), ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ (7.7 percent) ‘construction’ (11.5 percent), ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ (6.8 percent), ‘financial, real estate and professional services’ (5.0 percent), and ‘Public administration, defence and other Services’ (13.3 percent).
24. According to the latest estimates available on the IIP, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates 1.0 percent, 7.1 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively, in Q4 of 2017-18, as compared to the growth rates of 7.9 percent, 2.2 percent and 4.3percent, respectively in these sectors in Q4, 2016-17. Performance of corporate sector based on available information from BSE/NSE has been taken into account for compiling quarterly estimates.
25. The key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 7.4 percent and 9.9 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2017-18, as against the growth rates 0.2 percent and 2.3 percent, in the corresponding period of previous year. In the transport and communication sectors, cargo handled at major ports registered a growth rate of 8.5 percent in Q4 of 2017-18. The trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting sector have registered a growth of 6.8 percent in Q4 of 2017-18 as against 5.5 percent in Q4 of 2016-17. The sector ‘Public administration, defence and other services’ has shown a growth rate of 13.3 percent in Q4 of 2017-18 as against the growth rate of 16.4 per cent in 2016-17.
26. The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2017-18 are estimated at `18.99 lakh crore and `11.19 lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP in Q4 of 2017-18 were 54.6 percent and 32.2 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 55.2 percent and 30.3 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2016-17.
III . (b) Estimates at current prices
27. GDP at current prices in Q4 of 2017-18 is estimated at `45.34 lakh crore, as against `40.90 lakh crore in Q4 of 2016-17, showing a growth of 10.9 percent. GVA at current basic prices in Q4 of 2017-18 is estimated at `39.51 lakh crore, as against `35.69 lakh crore in Q4 of 2016-17, showing a growth of 10.7 percent. Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (4.9 percent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (9.4 percent), ‘manufacturing’ (12.4 percent), ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ (7.0 percent) ‘construction’ (14.5 percent), ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ (10.0 percent), ‘financial, real estate and professional services’ (8.8 percent), and ‘Public administration, defence and other Services’ (18.4 percent).
28. The PFCE and GFCF at current prices in Q4 of 2017-18 are estimated at `26.21 lakh crore and `13.18 lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP in Q4 of 2017-18 are estimated at 57.8 percent and 29.1 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.9 percent and 27.9 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2016-17.
29. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 1.3 percent, 3.1 percent, (-)0.7 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively during Q4 of 2017-18. The WPI of minerals increased by 6.0 percent during Q4 of 2017-18. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 4.6 percent during Q4 of 2017-18.
30. Estimates of GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the expenditures of GDP for the four quarters of 2015-16, 2016-17and 2017-18 at constant (2011-12) and current prices, are given in Statements 5 to 8.
31. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter April-June, 2018 (Q1 of 2018-19) will be on 31.08.2018.
